We do not expect New Zealand to escape the fallout from the global credit squeeze. And a correction in domestic property values is clearly setting in.

The end-of-year election will dominate the political landscape, creating some uncertainty about policy settings. Regardless of the outcome, a number of public sector CEOs are also moving on this year, signalling a changing of the guard that could well have flow-on effects in policy.

Environmental issues are likely to have far-reaching effects. Emissions from road transport increased almost 65% between 1990 and 2005, so this critical element of the country’s productivity faces challenges in climate-conscious times. Energy companies too must clear some high-set hurdles if they are to meet energy strategy targets. The agricultural sector will face growing demands to demonstrate its clean, green credentials. And water issues in the South Island will continue to attract interest as energy companies and the agricultural sector seek increased capacity.

However, the trade agenda looks positive. A free trade agreement should be signed with China in early April and another with India seems likely. The newly minted Rudd Government in Australia is showing signs of making CER even closer. And the boom in commodities shows little sign of slowing as worldwide demand grows for the foods we produce. But the high Kiwi and the low US dollar coupled with high domestic interest rates will continue to challenge exporters.

Look for different forms of participation and problem solving as public-private partnerships move up the agenda, and investment continues to address roading and infrastructural concerns.

The global talent shortage will continue to challenge business during times of record low unemployment.

All of these matters, and many more, will affect how New Zealanders live, the access we have to goods, and how we feel about doing business in this part of the world.

Economic turmoil generates change, but also leads to opportunity, and there will certainly be those who will see these as the best of times to restructure and invest.

Exciting times.